These days, email after email is popping in my inbox from anyone and everyone whosoever has predictions for cloud computing in 2013. I’ve started to delete them without reading any further. Why? They all say very obvious and simplistic things around Cloud industry that is very non-obvious and complex, if you peel back the layers. Worst of all, because most of the predictions come from technology vendors, their forecasts are over positive. Well it is very obvious since they are promoting their products
This is not to say that cloud computing won’t have high growth and high energy in 2013 – it will! However, not everything will be so rosy, and understanding the negative predictions is important for anyone adopting cloud computing.
Here are pessimist cloud computing predictions for 2013.
1. Price wars will kill the smaller providers in 2013.
I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but Amazon.com dropped its prices three times in the last few month. Google followed suit, then Microsoft. There is a race to the bottom when it comes to cloud pricing, as the larger providers try to capture as much share as they can of this exploding market. The situation is high favorable for customer.
But as always, the smaller providers without huge war chests of cash, but with impatient investors, won’t be able to make money at the prices that the larger names charge. Many of them will struggle to hang in through the days of low or no cloud computing profits – and hopefully not – many of them will have to toss in the towel or have the towel tossed in for them.
Sounds like Monopoly ? Guess what – You are right! The good news for the larger providers: Once the smaller providers are pushed out, They can begin to raise their prices.
2. The cloud computing skills shortage in 2013.
There is a clear lack of cloud computing talents as the market explodes. As a result, many cloud projects starting this year won’t be able to find the cloud architects, developers, engineers, security specialists, and others they need to complete the project. The lower talent levels available will equate to lower levels of success and to a hindrance of achieving cloud computing’s promise.
Of course, everyone and anyone would like to retool their skills for the cloud these days, and eventually the number of qualified candidates will close in on the number of open positions. As myself is racing to equip my skills and trying to catch the upcoming wave. But to reach the adequate level of professionals against demands, I don’t think that will occur for few years. What we are afraid for the next few years, count on more than a few cloud projects smacking the ground due to pilot error.
However do not let nayers and hesitators triumph over rising up Cloud Computing technology which will save business costs and our earth as per say from green IT perspective. If You are Engineer or Developer or Architect or Specialist, do not let this wave tosses us away. Be prepared, upskilled and do not make the same mistake like .com era.
We should have amazing 2013. I am looking forward to 2013!
Andreas Wasita 